1. Computers take up space
Computers (or rather their system units) need to be installed somewhere. Yes, furniture manufacturers have long mastered the design and creation of special computer tables, in which there is space for a drawer (by the way, everyone remembers that the first PCs, before the appearance of the Tower form factor, looked like a drawer with drives lying on the table, on which on top put a monitor?) But in the interior it looks unimportant, besides, it makes noise with its fans and collects dust. Of course, even if personal computers disappear altogether, somewhere in the basement or closet there will still be a home server that controls all home devices, but like a washing machine, for example, it will be hidden out of sight. The advent of all-in-ones is a great example of how this works. But monoblocks are not cheap and,
2. The performance of smartphones has already caught up with the performance of a PC
Ten years ago, when the first mobile processors with a clock speed of 1 gigahertz appeared, no one dreamed that someday the performance of smartphones would be equal to that of computers. Today it is already a given - smartphones have learned (their performance is quite sufficient) to record video in 8K resolution or to record simultaneously from two cameras simultaneously. This all suggests that the performance of smartphones (and tablets that use the same mobile platforms) is overkill for most users. All this further reduces the need of mankind for personal computers, leaving them only the functions of working tools. But even here smartphones have something to say.
3. "Real" work went to the "clouds"
How was it before? Everyone had computers on which they stored photographs (some might have videos), films, music, books, work (and not so much) documents. Today we listen to streaming music (hello Spotify, glad you're with us), watch streaming video (thanks to OTT services ), we also store photos in cloud services. And working documents too. I do not know how much it will look like a revelation to you, but all my texts for gg (including this one) I do not write in files, but directly in a web browser window, in our editorial CMS. It's a paradox, but moving to a new laptop takes me only a couple of hours, although a complete move to a new smartphone takes almost two days. Because on a laptop, most of the work takes place in the browser. This is such a version of the Ring of Power today: as soon as the browser is launched, I get access to all the resources, documents and services I need to work with. Formally, for work I don't even need a computer as such, but a keyboard, a touchpad and a screen on which there will be a browser with dozens of tabs. This, incidentally, explains the popularity of netbooks for education - they really do not have an operating system in our understanding, as well as a place to store data.
4. TVs pull the covers back
Televisions over the past decade have regained much of the attention from users lost thanks to the advent of computers on which we watched new films and series of the decade "noughties". They have become the main and largest screen of the ecosystem that is developing around technology . In fact, smart TVs today are the prototype of the home multimedia center of the future, which will no longer be a personal computer. And there will be one for the whole family. He needs the widest possible Internet channel, wireless connections to the entire zoo of home appliances, voice control. And if necessary, work - a plug-in wireless mouse and keyboard. And, by the way, all this TVs can already today .
5. Games: the leadership of the computer is already in question
Despite the fact that a significant part of computer games today are produced for computers we are used to (and gaming computers are generally a separate category of devices and even a separate genre of art), the vector of development of games has shifted greatly to mobile devices. The popularity of even professional e-sports for mobile devices is added by a low entry threshold - you do not need a system for several thousand dollars to play, a smartphone for 3-4 hundred dollars is enough, which can easily fit in your pocket. The popularity of game consoles does not add optimism to the superiority of computers in games. Let's be honest - the audience of games for desktop computers is growing at a very different pace than the audience for games for smartphones and consoles. Finally, if the previous arguments are not convincing to the apologists of desktop games, Let's look at another important factor: the time users spend playing these games. Our life is finite, and time is an irreplaceable resource, so what we spend it on in our life is really important. The time that humanity spends on mobile games is inevitably longer than in the case of stationary computers. For the simple reason that most games allow for a short game session anywhere in any free period of time. As a result, there will be either mobile games for a short time, or games for the big screen at home. And in the future 10-20 years, I am not very sure that a home computer for games will not be replaced by either a game console or some hypothetical home multimedia server to which different users and different screens, keyboards and gamepads will connect.
6. Smartphone - the future of the personal computer
In addition to the fact that smartphones are constantly increasing their performance, they are already able to provide a "seamless" work on the big screen today. This concept appeared with the first generations of Android smartphones (and there was also a hybrid solution combining a smartphone and its "brains" with a tablet), but until recently it has not yet become widespread. The farthest, apparently, in this matter, Samsung has advanced with its Dex application. Today this can be used, for example, for presentations - open a file with a presentation on a smartphone, connect to a projector and - voila. But smartphones will really replace computers when unified connection methods appear, allowing you to easily and quickly, anywhere in the world, combine your smartphone with a TV, keyboard and mouse. Imagine this brave new world: you come to any hotel in the world or go to a cafe or just a store at a gas station, put your smartphone in a docking station (or, for example, put it on a wireless charging mat), pick up a keyboard lying right there and work on a large TV screen (at least At least there are TVs in hotels now). The concept of a personal computer will shift towards a smartphone, which will be a personal (that is, personal) device for everyone.
7. The inevitable appearance of new interfaces
It's still a long way off, but in the future, new interfaces will make computers unnecessary. Although keyboards will be with us for a long time, the interfaces of interaction with computers will undergo inevitable changes. If only because progress does not stand still, and we still use the interfaces invented 30 years ago. In the Stone Age by the standards of computers. Already, computers are capable of perfectly recognizing voice requests and performing searches (as we see in TVs and all smart home equipment). Voice messages, with all the inconveniences associated with them, including the inability to search (although nothing will prevent this search from being organized over time), are also gaining momentum. So far, the biggest advancements in interfaces have been brought about by the introduction of touch screens, which are controlled using finger gestures. And yes - all these gestures look out of place on traditional computers in the vast majority of cases. That is, computer technology is developing, we have a new experience of interacting with it, and old computers are deprived of all these abilities. And although the manufacturer of the operating system, with a tenacity worthy of a better application, is trying to pull control using touch screens on computers created in another era, we do not see any breakthroughs in this area, although they are promised every year. New possibilities for interfaces have been promising us virtual and augmented reality technologies for many years. The visualization of the computer interface from Iron Man or Minority Report is still a long way off, but it can still happen. we have a new experience of interacting with it, and old computers are deprived of all these abilities. And although the manufacturer of the operating system, with a tenacity worthy of a better application, is trying to pull control using touch screens on computers created in another era, we do not see any breakthroughs in this area, although they are promised every year. New possibilities for interfaces have been promising us virtual and augmented reality technologies for many years. The visualization of the computer interface from Iron Man or Minority Report is still a long way off, but it can still happen. we have a new experience of interacting with it, and old computers are deprived of all these abilities. And although the manufacturer of the operating system, with a tenacity worthy of a better application, is trying to pull control using touch screens on computers created in another era, we do not see any breakthroughs in this area, although they are promised every year. New possibilities for interfaces have been promising us virtual and augmented reality technologies for many years. The visualization of the computer interface from Iron Man or Minority Report is still a long way off, but it can still happen. created in another era, we do not see any breakthroughs in this area, although they are promised every year. New possibilities for interfaces have been promising us virtual and augmented reality technologies for many years. The visualization of the computer interface from Iron Man or Minority Report is still a long way off, but it can still happen. created in another era, we do not see any breakthroughs in this area, although they are promised every year. New possibilities for interfaces have been promising us virtual and augmented reality technologies for many years. The visualization of the computer interface from Iron Man or Minority Report is still a long way off, but it can still happen.
Well, sooner or later, humanity will come to control computer systems with the help of thought. More precisely, thanks to signals that will be read directly from the brain using implants. The first experiments are already underway, for example, the same NeuralinkMask. All this will by no means turn humanity into some kind of cyborg, as impressionable fans of conspiracy theories can imagine, who find it easier to live with the idea that the Earth is flat, and the 5G chip is placed in the injection needle of a syringe with a vaccine. And it all starts with a medical indication that allows you to fight real problems and diseases. And only then will it move towards expanding functionality, starting with the simplest ones. For example, the dial of a watch, which by the power of thought can be called before the eyes without being noticed by others. What this could potentially lead to has already been invented by science fiction writers in the entire range from optimistic to pessimistic scenarios.
In the dry residue
Whether we like it or not, progress is relentless. Of course, personal computers will be in our lives for a long time to come. But the world is constantly changing under the influence of technology. And every year these changes are taking place faster and faster. From the moment when Zuckerberg launched the first version of Facebook, made on his knee, to the moment when he became a billionaire and a Hollywood movie was made about him, only 7 years passed. How long will it take for the new Zuckerberg to do this? Two years? Year? Three months? Personal computers still play a huge role in our lives, but they (and our time spent behind them) are gradually dissolving between other devices: tablets, smartphones (primarily) and game consoles. Already now, a desktop computer that is detached in the house is turning into an unnecessary rudiment, the functions of which have taken over the TV, a game console, a smartphone with a tablet and even a smart watch. Perhaps, if you are planning to buy a new computer in the near future, you should think about all this and ask the question: what do you need a computer for and what capabilities other devices - a TV or a smartphone - can better cope with. And maybe what you consider to be a computer is already an unnecessary spacer between the keyboard and the screen.
