A GTA 6 March 25 reveal is making the rounds online, but is there any truth to the speculation?
GTA 6 is pretty much an eventuality. Regardless of whether developer Rockstar is ready to announce anything yet, the huge success of the GTA series as a whole, coupled with the consistently strong player base of GTA Online, means another GTA game is a foregone conclusion - whether it's called GTA 6 or not.
There are already plenty of rumours and hints to discover ahead of any eventual PS5 and Xbox Series X release for GTA 6 - including the fact that the official Rockstar Support account is telling fans to "stay tuned" for GTA 6 updates on Twitter.
The most concrete bit of evidence we have comes from a Kotaku report following up on investigations into Rockstar's work culture. This report claims that GTA 6, or at least "a new entry in the Grand Theft Auto series," is early in development as of April 2020. Additionally, it suggests that Rockstar's internal plan for the game is to release a slightly smaller game and then expand on it through regular updates. This suggests GTA 6 will build on the success of GTA Online by integrating more live service options - or it could just be the framework for GTA Online 2 outright.
Either way, Rockstar remains tight-lipped about what we can expect from the highly-anticipated RPG for now, but there are a few rumors circulating around on the internet, which we've paired with some particularly enthusiastic theories from the GamesRadar team. To satiate your appetites, below you'll find everything we know about GTA 6, from how many playable characters it might have to potential locations, thanks to a flood of information from an alleged GTA 6 Project Americas leak. Get reading!
Take all this information with a pinch of salt - make that two pinches, actually, since the game is reportedly very early in development - but the latest alleged GTA 6 leak comes from Reddit. User JackOLantern1982 relayed a grand total of 23 details about Rockstar's upcoming game. As well as confirming that it's in development, they say that its codename is Project Americas as the game will take place over multiple countries: namely, Brazil in a fictional city based on Rio de Janeiro and Vice City in the US. Heavily influenced by Netflix's Narcos (which is a phenomenal series about the origins of the cocaine trade), you can find the information from JackOLantern1982 below, edited for clarity, along with details from a separate potential leak on Fireden.
- The next GTA title has been in development since 2012, but production didn't begin properly until 2015, but even then the team was focusing more on Red Dead Redemption 2.
- It's another Rockstar Worldwide Production.
- Codename is PROJECT AMERICAS.
- Set in both Vice City and a new fictional location based on Rio de Janeiro.
- Some linear missions take place in Liberty City, but it isn't an open world (think Ludendorff in GTA 5).
- Game will balance realism and arcade and it won't be as realistic as Red Dead Redemption 2.
- One playable protagonist: male, not female, despite supposed leaks.
- Set in 1970s-1980s.
- You play as an up and coming drug lord-wannabe named "Ricardo". Another key character called “Kacey” is a part of the narrative. You start off as a grunt doing runs as a cocaine smuggler from Vice City to the new large South American area before making connections with big time drug lords and making your way up. Multiple cities.
- There will also be a giant prison which will play a part in the game.
- Will feature a 'chapter' system similar to a Tarantino flick or Red Dead Redemption 2.
- Weather is a heavy focus (hurricanes, floods, etc).
- Buildings change over the eras, vehicles too. So older, rare classic cars get more expensive as time progresses etc. Full economy.
- Heavily inspired by Netflix's Narcos.
- They want to have an incredible 70s/80s soundtrack.
- A younger Martin Madrazo will make an appearance as will his father who is a big drug lord at the time. You do some missions for the Madrazo family involving hits on other gangs.
- Drug empire building is a mechanic similar to Vice City Stories but bigger. Think the GTA Online system and dial it up to 10.
- You can only have weapons on your person. No arsenal in your back pocket, like Red Dead Redemption 2.
- Your personal vehicle will be like your horse saddle in Red Dead Redemption 2. All your equipment is stored in the trunk. You also store your body armour in the car. If you wear it, it appears, no longer just an invisible thing.
- There will be tons of subtitle reading. Think Max Payne 3 amounts, very immersive, like watching an episode of Narcos. Whenever you're in South America, don't expect to hear much English. Vice City however is a mix of everything, but mostly English.
- Last bit of narrative info, it will discuss topics such as HIV and the immigration crisis of the time. A fictional version of Fidel Castro etc.
- Next-gen only, not PS4 or Xbox One [aka PS5 and Xbox Project Scarlett].
- GTA 6 is now their primary focus, alongside another title (which might be Bully 2).
- Game is still in Pre-Alpha so names, locations, details could and probably will change.
- No ETA on a release date.
And here's the leaks from Fireden, edited for clarity too:
- The game is set in modern-day Liberty City.
- The beginning of the game is reminiscent of The Wire.
- Police officers are trying to crack down on a gang/drug ring based around a nightclub.
- There are four main characters, two police and two gang members.
- The plot then twists and goes to upstate New York, where it becomes more crime noir, think Ozark and Breaking Bad.
- It will have twice the amount of dialogue as GTA 5 and a really crazy plot twist.
- The main storyline splits after a while, the criminal side has sort of a sandbox build-a-crime-empire thing (Fallout 4 meets the Sims), while the police side is more of a traditional action game with a little twist of LA Noire.
- Earliest release is holiday 2021, but I would guess later, 2022 or 2023.
Listen below for an in-depth discussion about GTA 6 from the @GTAVoclock team, who accurately predicted large elements of GTA 5 back in 2012. The conversation from the 42m 42s mark about a 'deeper' vision for open worlds is especially relevant in light of Rockstar's recently confirmed plans for Red Dead Redemption 2.
What has Rockstar said about GTA 6 on the record?
Rockstar North’s former President teased the next series entry back in 2013 in a four-part interview with Develop magazine, which got the online rumour mill started:
“We don’t know what GTA 6 will be, but we’ve got some ideas,” said Benzies in the interview. “We’ve got about 45 years’ worth of ideas we want to do. We’ll pick the right ones. It comes from the idea first. Where it is going to be set is the first question. That then defines the missions; you’re doing different things in LA than in New York or Miami. The map and story get worked up together, and the story is a basic flow of how it works out so you can layer the mission in."
Of course, Benzies didn’t give much away about what form GTA 6 will take and recently left Rockstar North in fairly acrimonious circumstances. However, it’s unlikely that Rockstar will rip up the GTA series’ tried-and-tested development process, where building a world comes first with characters and structures layered on top. GTA 5 was created by 1000+ developers based across studios worldwide, so it’d be a brave move to change the template. In fact, it’s probable the location is already set: we spoke to a software provider at E3 2015, speaking under discretion, who suggested work on GTA 6 was already well underway.
How the Fermi Problem might help us make more educated predictions
Truthfully, nobody outside Rockstar North and their cast-iron NDAs knows anything about GTA6, but using historical precedents and an estimation technique called the Fermi problem, we can establish a more credible outline. What’s the Fermi problem? The term was recently popularised in the book Superforecasting, prefaced by the question:
How many piano tuners are in Chicago?
Without google searching for the answer, it doesn’t sound like the sort of thing anyone would know by heart – but your approach to tackling the question, reveals a lot about the potential accuracy of the prediction.
In short, it’s possible to ‘chunk’ the question into more estimable parts e.g. What’s my guess at the population of Chicago? On average how many people are in each house? How many houses might own pianos? How often do they need tuning? A logical mind might land upon a figure of 200-300 piano tuners (as outlined in the link above). The actual answer is 290.
So, while GTA 6 is unknown, it is not composed of unknowables. You can apply historical precedent, personal insight (into its creators), snippets of interviews, CV searches and an overlay of societal – and technology – trends, to form a clearer picture. Predicting GTA 6 isn't a pure 'Fermi Problem', in that it isn't a solely quantitive issue, but the structural approach is relevant.
When will the GTA 6 release date be?
Long story short: if Rockstar had announced GTA 6 the day after Red Dead Redemption 2 came out (October 26, 2018 - put it in your diary), then based on historical delays between console GTA announcements and release, we’d be waiting around 22 months – so August 2020. Of course, Rockstar didn't do that. It didn't do anything, in fact, so all we have to go on is word that GTA 6 was "early in development" as of April 2020. That makes it difficult to predict any sort of release window, but we may at least hear about the game by the end of 2021, with a potential release in 2022.
